Download Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Cognitive Decision by Roland W. Scholz PDF

By Roland W. Scholz

This quantity includes the revised papers of a world symposium on learn on fallacies, biases, and the advance of determination habit lower than uncertainty. The papers are geared up in 5 major sections. The advent outlines the conceptual framework and the way 3 of the sections - Cognitive choice examine, Social interplay, and improvement and Epistemology - are interrelated and in addition how new fields, resembling learn into developmental questions, should be productively built-in. within the 5th part reviews are amassed, which overview the effect of the contributions on selection learn itself, and likewise on cognitive psychology, social psychology, fiscal concept, ant the self-discipline of arithmetic schooling.

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I n what f o l l o w s , I w i l l a t t e m p t t o s k e t c h a conceptual and e x p e r i m e n t a l h i s t o r y o f t h e base r a t e i s s u e , h o p i n g t o show t h a t t h e emergent p i c t u r e i s r e a l l y remarkably coherent. The base r a t e f a l l a c y and a t t r i b u t i o n s of causality To begin, I s h a l l g i v e t h r e e p u z z l e s t h a t i l l u s t r a t e t h e base r a t e f a l l a c y , b u t i n a c o n t e x t o f causal a t t r i b u t i o n r a t h e r t h a n p r o b a b i l i t y e s t i m a t e s , t h e s e two o f t e n b e i n g i n t i m a t e l y l i n k e d t o each o t h e r .

Psychological d i f f e r e n c e s among problem isomorphs. B. R. ), C o g n i t i v e Theory, Vol. : 1953. S t a t e d expectations as a f u n c t i o n o f p r o b a b i l i t y and d e s i r a b i l i t y o f outcomes. I n : Journal o f P e r s o n a l i t y , 21, 329-335 36 COGNITIVE DECISION RESEARCH Irwin, F. & Snodgrass, J . : 1966. Effects of independent and dependent outcome values upon bets. H. & Nisbett, R . E . : 1982. Inductive reasoning: Competence o r s k i l l ? (Bell Labs Technical Memorandum).

1978. Information-processing theory of human problem solving. K. ( e d . ) , Handbook of Learning and Cognitive Processes Vol. 5: Human Information Processing. H i l l s d a l e , NJ, Erlbaum, 271-296 JUDGMENTAL HEURISTICS 37 Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. 1971. The b e l i e f i n t h e law o f small numbers. In: P s y c hologic a l Bul e t i n , 76, 105-110 Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. quency and p r o b a b i l i t . 1973. A v a i l a b i l i t y : A h e u r i s t i c f o r j u d g i n g f r e I n : C o g n i t i v e Psychology, 5, 207-232 Tversky, A.

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