Download A simulation approach to the study of human fertility by Gigi Santow (auth.) PDF

By Gigi Santow (auth.)

This e-book is an amended and just a little shorter model of my doctoral thesis which I submitted to the Australian nationwide collage in 1976, and for this reason edited on the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute in 1977. The paintings falls evidently into elements. the 1st is anxious with the development and validation of a version, and the second one with its program as an experimental software. within the first half, comprising Chapters One to 4, an exam of historic and modern types of inhabitants development resulted in the choice to check alterations in fertility by way of a organic micro simulation version. the explanations helping the alternative of one of these version have been mentioned, and a seek of the literature produced the knowledge for use as version enter. the results of various the enter have been tested after which the version output was once confirmed opposed to Hutterite info. the most emphasis of the second one a part of the paintings, comprising Chapters 5 to Seven, was once the checking out of the impression at the fertility of 1 society of diversifications within the length of the submit partum interval of non-susceptibility to notion, and within the point of toddler and baby mortality. additional simulations have been played to find the influence on fertility of using birth control to realize various relatives sizes, either with and with no the extra impression of toddler and baby mortality.

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Parameters must be laboriously estimated from existing data and then fed back into the model and, as is clear from the failure of the only statistical test of the model, there is no guarantee that the output will be acceptable. Another type of input data which must be examined is the set of random numbers which are used to simulate the reproductive events. If one expresses all numbers in binary form they become strings of O's and 1's, and the intuitive notion of a random number is that the series of O's 12.

3. 3. 5 months) by dividing the average length of time between the first and last confinements by one less than the average number of confinements per mother. 5 lunar months (18 months). 38) respectively, for sample sizes of 500. The first birth interval in the simulation is several months shorter than the Tietze one which suggests that the fecundability value in the simulation might be too high, or the live birth gestation period too short. Further, to account for the similarity in later birth intervals one could infer that the live birth post partum amenorrhoea period in the simulation might be too long.

69 .. 1 STILI!.! I 1 I 1 I I I , s ", 1 I I 10 0 0 ASORT REST STILI. ZI " I a. 69 32 2' ·S'+ ",7 1. > 01i5 'ti,J°o2 .. 2. 3 21) 031 IS 22. '16 IS Sf; ... , 17. See Eaton (1952) for an account of the Hutterite's 'controlled acculturation'. 46 years. After her post partum infecund period was over there was a gap of one month before she conceived again, and her second live birth occurred at age 26 years. She spent a total of 74 months in the (non-pregnant) fecundable state. The following section in the table presents the time spent between live births except for the first which gives the number of months between marriage and first birth.

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